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경북 구미을, 현역 김영식 의원 바짝 추격하는 강명구·최우영·허성우

이성현 기자 l 기사입력 2024-02-07

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【브레이크뉴스 경북 】이성현 기자=현역인 국민의힘 김영식 국회의원이 같은 당 소속 다른 도전자들의 거센 추격을 받고 있는 것으로 나타났다.

 

브레이크뉴스대구경북이 여론조사기관 (주)알앤써치에 의뢰해 지난 2월 3일부터 5일까지 3일간 실시한 경북 구미을 지역 국민의힘 국회의원 후보 적합도 조사에서 현역인 김영식 의원이 19.2%를 기록했다.

 

(C) 국민의힘 예비후보 6자 대결

 

이어 강명구 예비후보가 18.3%로 김 의원을 바짝 추격하는 모습이다. 두 사람 간 차이는 불과 0.9%p로, 오차범위 내에서 격돌하는 양상이다.

 

뒤 이어 최우영 예비후보가 13%, 허성우 예비후보 12.1%, 최진녕 예비후보 8.8%, 신순식 예비후보 4.1% 였다. 기타후보 3.5%, (지지하는 후보) 없다 15.3%, 잘모름 이라고 답한 응답자는 5.7% 로 나타났다.

 

김영식 의원은 60대에서, 강명구 18세 이상 20대, 최우영 18세 이상 20대, 허성우 60대와 70세 이상, 최진녕 70세 이상, 신순식 60대에서 각각 자신들의 지지율이 높게 나왔다.

 

국민의힘 지지층으로 한정해봤더니 강명구 예비후보가 25.7%, 김영식 24.2%, 허성우 14.5%,최우영 13.1% 최진녕 9.4% 신순식 4.1% 순으로 김 의원을 강명구 예비후보가 앞서는 것으로 조사됐다. 또한 두 사람간의 격차는 1.5%p 였다. 이어 기타 후보 3,1%, (지지후보) 없음 3.2%, 잘모르겠다 2.8%로 조사됐다.

 

(C) 국민의힘 예비후보 5자 대결

 

국민의힘 후보 5자 적합도 질문에서는 김영식 23%, 강명구 18.7% ,허성우 12.4%, 최우영 10.6% ,최진녕 9.2% 였으며 기타후보 4%,(지지후보) 없다 14.1%, 잘 모름이라고 답한 응답자는 8.0% 순으로 조사됐다. 6자 대결과 마찬가지로 1위와 2위간의 격차는 오차 범위내이기는 하지만 4.3%p 조금 벌어졌다.

 

국민의힘 지지층으로 한정해도 6자 대결과는 달리 김영식 의원이 27.3%, 강명구 예비후보 24.0%로 간격을 조금 벌였다. 1명의 후보가 빠져나가면서 해당 후보의 지지율이 김 의원 쪽으로 쏠렸다. 뒤를 이어 허성우 15.3%, 최우영 12.5% 최진녕 9.3% 순으로 조사됐다. 기타 후보 4.3%, (지지후보) 없음 2.0%, 잘모르겠다고 답한 응답자는 5.2%였다.

 

(C) 국민의힘 예비후보 4자 대결

 

한 사람을 더 줄여 4자 대결 질문에서는 김영식 27.9%, 강명구 21.3%, 최우영12.8%, 허성우 12.7% 순으로 조사됐다. 김 의원과 강명구 예비후보와의 격차는 6.6%로 5자 대결보다 더 벌어졌고, 기타 후보 6.2%, 없다 11.4%, 잘모름이라고 답한 응답자는 7.7%였다.

 

국민의힘 지지층으로 한정할 시에도 김영식 31.1%, 강명구 26.1%, 허성우15.8%, 최우영13.7% 을 나타내면서 김 의원과 그 뒤를 쫓는 강명구 예비후보간의 간격은 5%로 이 역시 격차가 조금 더 벌어졌다. 기타 후보 7.1%, 없다고 답한 응답자는 1.1%, 잘모름이라고 답한 응답자 5.2% 로 조사됐다.

 

(C) 김영식 국회의원 의정활동 평가

 

국민의힘 6자 대결은 2중 2강 정도로 분석된다. 다만, 2위로 치고 올라온 강명구와 1%도 차이가 나지 않는 상황에서 현역인 김 의원이 최종 경선에 포함될 수 있을지는 의문으로 남는 결과다. 만약, 김 의원이 경선에 참여하지 못할 상황이 되고, 최종 경선 참여자가 공관위가 제시한 3인으로 간다고 하면 구미 을 경선은 김영식 의원을 뒤쫓던 나머지 예비후보들간의 새판이 짜여질 것으로 전망된다. 김 의원이 경선에 참여할 경우는 2강 1중 정도의 구도가 예상된다.

 

김영식 의원의 의정활동에 대하여도 물었다. 이에 대하여 35.5%의 응답자가 ‘잘못하고 있다’고 답했고, ‘잘하고 있다’고 답한 응답자는 31.8%로 박빙이었다. ‘잘모름’이라고 답한 응답자가 의외로 32.7%로 조사됐다.

 

(C) 더불어민주당 예비후보 양자대결

 

TK에서는 거의 유일하게 경선이 실시되고 있는 더불어민주당 적합 후보를 묻는 질문에서는 김현권 전 국회의원이 21.3%를 얻어 18.8%를 얻은 장세용 전 구미시장을 근소하게 앞섰다. 두 사람의 격차는 오차 범위내인 2.5%P였다. 다만, 더불어민주당 지지층으로 한정해 물으면 김현권 47.5%, 장세용 40.4% 로 두 사람 격차는 7.1%P로 오차범위이긴 하지만 조금 벌어졌다. 이외에 기타 후보 16.2%, 없다 32.5%, 잘모름이라고 답한 응답자도 11.3% 나 되는 등 전체적으로 더불어민주당에 대한 지역민들의 관심도는 적극적이기보다는 조금은 소극적인 것으로 분석됐다.

 

(C) 정당 지지도


이 지역의 정당지지율은 국민의힘 63.9%, 더불어민주당 18.7%, 개혁신당 3.5%, 녹색정의당 1.0% 순으로 조사됐다. 국민의힘 지지율이 압도적으로 높은 가운데, 개혁신당은 40대에서 전체평균보다 높은 5.5%P 지지를 받았을 뿐, 전체적으로 기대 이하의 지지율을 얻는 데 그쳤다. 이외에 기타 정당 2.0%,지지정당 없음 10.1%, 잘모르겠다고 답한 응답자는 1.0% 였다.

 

한편 ,이번 조사는 지난 2월 3일부터 5일까지 3일간 경북 구미시(을)에 거주하고 있는 만 18세 이상 남녀 502명(가중502명)를 대상으로 통신 3사가 제공한 무선 가상번호 98% 유선 2% 자동응답방식으로 여론조사를 실시했다. 조사의 응답률은 7.1%(무선 7.4%,유선2.5%)였고, 표본오차는 95% 신뢰수준에서 오차범위 ±4.4%포인트였다. 2024년 1월 말 기준 행정안전부 주민등록 인구 기준 성, 연령 지역별 가중치 부여(셀가중)를 적용했다. 자세한 사항은 중앙선거여론조사심의위원회 홈페이지를 참조하면 된다.

 

<구글 번역으로 번역한 영문 기사의 전문 입니다. 번역에 오류가 있을 수 있음을 밝힙니다.>

It has been revealed that incumbent People Power Party National Assembly member Kim Young-sik is being fiercely pursued by other challengers from the same party.

 

In a survey conducted by Break News Daegu Gyeongbuk for three days from February 3 to 5 on the suitability of candidates for the People Power Party National Assembly member in Gumi-eul, Gyeongsangbuk-do, Rep. Kim Young-sik only received 19.2%.

 

Rep. Kim is followed by preliminary candidate Kang Myeong-gu with 18.3%, and the difference between the two is only 0.9%, which means that the approval rating of Rep. Kim, an active member of the National Assembly in the district, falls far short of expectations.

 

Following Candidate Kang, preliminary candidate Choi Woo-young was 13%, preliminary candidate Heo Seong-woo was 12.1%, preliminary candidate Choi Jin-nyeong was 8.8%, preliminary candidate Shin Sun-sik was 4.1%, other candidates were 3.5%, (candidates they support) were 15.3%, and 5.7% of respondents responded that they were not sure. It appeared as %.

 

Representative Kim Young-sik's approval rating was high among those in their 60s, Kang Myeong-gu among those over 18 in their 20s, Choi Woo-young among those over 18 in their 20s, Heo Seong-woo in his 60s and over 70s, Choi Jin-nyeong over 70, and Shin Soon-sik in his 60s.

 

When limited to the People Power Party supporters, preliminary candidate Kang Myeong-gu was found to be ahead of Rep. Kim with 25.7%, followed by Kim Young-sik with 24.2%, Heo Seong-woo with 14.5%, Choi Woo-young with 13.1%, Choi Jin-nyeong with 9.4%, and Shin Soon-sik with 4.1%. Also, the gap between the two was 1.5%p. Next, other candidates were surveyed at 3.1%, (supported candidates) at 3.2%, and not sure at 2.8%.

 

In the question on the suitability of the five People Power Party candidates, Kim Young-sik was 23%, Kang Myeong-gu 18.7%, Heo Seong-woo 12.4%, Choi Woo-young 10.6%, Choi Jin-nyeong 9.2%, other candidates 4%, (candidates supported) 14.1%, and 8.0% of respondents answered they were not sure. The survey was conducted in order. As with the six-way match, the gap between first and second place widened slightly by 4.3% points, although it was within the margin of error.

 

Even when limited to the People Power Party supporters, unlike the six-party battle, the gap was slightly widened with Rep. Kim Young-sik at 27.3% and preliminary candidate Kang Myeong-gu at 24.0%. With one candidate leaving, that candidate's approval rating shifted towards Rep. Kim. Heo Seong-woo followed with 15.3%, Choi Woo-young with 12.5%, and Choi Jin-nyeong with 9.3%. Other candidates were 4.3%, (supported candidates) were none (2.0%), and those who responded that they were not sure were 5.2%.

 

In the four-way match question, which was reduced by one person, Kim Young-sik was 27.9%, Kang Myeong-gu 21.3%, Choi Woo-young 12.8%, and Heo Seong-woo 12.7%. The gap between Rep. Kim and prospective candidate Kang Myeong-gu was 6.6%, wider than in a five-way match, while 6.2% responded to other candidates, 11.4% said they did not know, and 7.7% responded that they were not sure.

 

Even when limited to the People Power Party supporters, Kim Young-sik had 31.1%, Kang Myeong-gu had 26.1%, Heo Seong-woo had 15.8%, and Choi Woo-young had 13.7%, and the gap between Rep. Kim and the candidate running after him, Kang Myeong-gu, was 5%, which also widened the gap slightly. Other candidates were 7.1%, respondents who answered none were 1.1%, and respondents who answered they were not sure were 5.2%.

 

The People Power Party's six-party confrontation is analyzed as a two-way battle. However, with less than a 1% gap between him and Kang Myeong-gu, who came in second place, the result leaves doubts as to whether incumbent Rep. Kim can be included in the final primary. If Representative Kim is unable to participate in the primary, and the final participants in the primary are the three suggested by the diplomatic committee, it is expected that the Gumi Eul primary will be a new race among the remaining candidates who were chasing Representative Kim Young-sik. If Rep. Kim participates in the primary, a top-two structure is expected.

 

We also asked about Rep. Kim Young-sik's legislative activities. Regarding this, 35.5% of respondents answered that they were ‘doing it wrong’, while 31.8% of respondents answered that they were ‘doing it well’, which was a close split. The number of respondents who answered ‘I don’t know’ was surprisingly 32.7%.

 

When asked about the suitable candidate for the Democratic Party of Korea, the only candidate in TK where primary elections are being held, former National Assembly member Kim Hyun-kwon received 21.3%, slightly ahead of former Gumi Mayor Jang Se-yong, who received 18.8%. The gap between the two was 2.5%p, within the margin of error. However, when limited to the support base of the Democratic Party of Korea, Kim Hyun-kwon had 47.5% and Jang Se-yong had 40.4%. The gap between the two was 7.1%p, which is within the margin of error, but has widened slightly. In addition, 16.2% of respondents answered other candidates, 32.5% said none, and 11.3% said they were not sure. Overall, local residents' interest in the Democratic Party of Korea was analyzed to be somewhat passive rather than active.

 

The approval ratings for political parties in this region were in the order of 63.9% for the People Power Party, 18.7% for the Democratic Party of Korea, 3.5% for the New Reform Party, and 1.0% for the Green Justice Party. While the People Power Party's approval rating was overwhelmingly high, the New Reform Party only received support from those in their 40s, which was 5.5% points higher than the overall average, and only received a lower-than-expected approval rating overall. In addition, 2.0% supported other political parties, 10.1% supported no political party, and 1.0% responded that they were not sure.

 

Meanwhile, this survey was conducted over a period of three days from February 3rd to 5th, targeting 502 men and women (502 weighted) over the age of 18 living in Gumi-si, Gyeongsangbuk-do. 98% of them used wireless virtual numbers provided by the three telecommunication companies. A public opinion poll was conducted using a wired 2% automated response method. The response rate of the survey was 7.1% (wireless 7.4%, landline 2.5%), and the sampling error was ± 4.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. As of the end of January 2024, weighting (cell weighting) by gender, age, and region was applied based on the resident registration population of the Ministry of the Interior and Safety. For further details, please refer to the National Election Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee website.


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