‘여론조사꽃’이 2025년 2월 28일부터 3월 1일까지 이틀간 실시한 전화면접조사에서 ‘더불어민주당’의 지지율은 46.5%로 지난 조사 대비 3.0%p 하락한 것으로 나타났다. 반면, ‘국민의힘’은 34.3%로 3.9%p 상승했다. 

 

 

또한 윤석열의 군 통수권자로 복귀에 대한 질문에 전화면접조사 결과 응답자의 65.5%가 ‘반대한다’고 답했다. 반면, ‘찬성’ 의견은 32.2%에 그쳐, 응답자 3명 중 2명은 윤석열이 군 통수권자로 복귀를 부정적으로 평가하는 것으로 나타났다.

 

차기 대통령 선거에서 가장 적합한 대권 주자에 대해선 ‘이재명 더불어민주당 대표’가 43.6%, 2위는 11.8%를 기록한 ‘김문수 고용노동부 장관’으로, 두 후보간 격차는 31.8%p였다. 3위는 ‘한동훈 국민의힘 전 대표’(6.4%), 4위는 ‘홍준표 대구시장’(5.3%), 5위는 ‘오세훈 서울시장’(5.1%)로 조사됐다. 이어 ‘우원식 국회의장’(2.3%), ‘김동연 경기도지사’(1.5%), ‘안철수 국민의힘 의원’(1.3%), ‘이준석 개혁신당 의원’(1.2%) 순이었다. 

 

정당지지율의 권역별로 살펴보면, ‘더불어민주당’은 호남권에서 15.6%p 상승해 79.6%의 지지율을 기록했지만 대구·경북(10.7%p↓), 부·울·경(7.4%p↓), 서울(5.3%p↓)에서는 하락세를 보였다. 반면, ‘국민의힘’은 부·울·경(10.4%p↑), 서울(5.5%p↑), 경인권(5.1%p↑)등에서 상승하며 대구·경북과 부·울·경에서 강세를 보였다. 수도권과 호남권에서는 ‘더불어민주당’이 우세했다.

 

연령별로 보면 ‘더불어민주당’은 50대(6.3%p↓) 60대(6.2%p↓)에서 하락하며 60대 지지율이 ‘국민의힘’에 역전됐다. ‘국민의힘’은 대부분의 연령층에서 상승세를 보였으며, 특히 50대(7.7%p↑)와 60대(5.9%p↑)에서 상승폭이 컸다. 성별로는, 남녀 모두에서 ‘국민의힘’ 지지율이 상승하며 ‘더불어민주당’과의 지지율 격차가 축소됐다. 특히 18~29세 남성층의 ‘국민의힘’ 지지율이 12.8%p 급등한 반면, 같은 연령대의 여성층에서는 ‘국민의힘’이 7.1%p 하락하며, 지난 조사에서 ‘더불어민주당’이 앞섰던 18~29세 연령층의 지지율 구도가 다시 팽팽해졌다.

 

이념 성향별로 보면, 진보층, 중도층은 ‘더불어민주당’이, 보수층에서는 ‘국민의힘’이 우세했다. 중도층에서 ‘더불어민주당’이 2.8%p 하락한 52.8%이었으며, ‘국민의힘’(22.6%, 1.3%p↑)과의 격차는 30.2%p로 나타났다.

 

이재명 43.6% vs 김문수 11.8% vs 한동훈 6.4% vs 홍준표 5.3% vs 오세훈 5.1%

 vs 우원식 2.3% vs 김동연 1.5% vs 안철수 1.3% vs 이준석 1.2% 

 

차기 대통령 선거에서 가장 적합한 대권 주자에 대한 질문에 권역별로 ‘이재명’이 모든 지역에서 1위를 기록했다. 특히 수도권, 충청권, 호남권, 부·울·경, 강원·제주에서 ‘김문수’를 크게 앞섰으며, 대구·경북에서도 오차범위 내에서 우위를 보였다.

 

연령대별로 보면, 18~29세의 경우 ‘적합한 인물 없음’(45.4%)이 가장 높게 나타났으며, 그 다음으로 ‘이재명’(18.3%)과 ‘홍준표’(8.8%)가 뒤를 이었다. 30대 이상 60대 이하는 ‘이재명’이 압도적인 지지를 받았으며 70세 이상에서도 ‘이재명’(27.8%)이 ‘김문수’(24.8%)를 소폭 앞섰다.

 

정당 지지층별로는 더불어민주당 지지층의 81.9%가 압도적인 비율로 ‘이재명’을 선택했다. 반면, 국민의힘 지지층에서는 ‘김문수’(32.5%)를 가장 많이 지지했으며, 한동훈(14.7%), 홍준표(12.4%), 오세훈(11.8%) 순이었다

 

이념 성향별로는 진보층에서는 72.2%가 ‘이재명’에게 압도적 지지를 보인 반면, 보수층(28.3%)에서는 ‘김문수’가 1위를 기록했다. 중도층에서는 ‘이재명’(50.2%)이 ‘김문수’(6.9%)와 ‘한동훈’(5.4%)을 큰 격차로 앞섰다.

 

한편, 민주 계열의 대권주자인 ‘이재명’, ‘김동연’, ‘우원식’의 합산 지지율은 47.4%로 국힘 계열의 ‘김문수’, ‘오세훈’, ‘홍준표’, ‘한동훈’, ‘안철수’, ‘이준석’의 합산 지지율(31.1%)보다 16.3%p 높았다.

 

공천개입 의혹관련 김건희 씨 소환조사 필요하다 68.1% vs 필요하지 않다 27.7%

 

윤석열・김건희 부부의 공천개입을 시사하는 통화녹음이 공개돼 공천개입 의혹 관련 김건희 씨 소환조사 필요성에 대한 질문 결과 응답자의 68.1%가 ‘김건희 씨 소환조사가 필요하다’고 응답했다. 반면, ‘필요하지 않다’는 응답은 27.7%에 그쳐 국민 10명 중 7명가량이 공천개입의혹 관련 김건희 씨에 대한 소환조사를 요구하는 것으로 나타났다.

 

전국 모든 지역에서 ‘김건희 씨를 소환조사해야 한다’는 응답이 앞서거나 우세했다. 특히 호남권에서는 90.0%가 ‘소환조사 필요’라고 응답하며 가장 찬성률을 보였다. 서울(72.0%)과 경인권(71.6%)에서도 소환조사해야 한다고 강하게 제기됐다.

 

60대 이하에서는 ‘소환조사 필요’ 응답이 우세했고, 70세 이상에서는 ‘소환조사가 필요하지 않다’(52.6%)는 응답이 ‘소환조사가 필요하다’(41.3%)는 응답보다 높게 나타났다.

 

정당 지지 성향에 따라 의견이 크게 엇갈렸다. 더불어민주당 지지층의 97.3%는 ‘소환조사 필요’라고 압도적인 수치로 응답했다. 반면, 국민의힘 지지층은 ‘소환조사 불필요’(71.1%)이라는 응답이 우세했다. 무당층에서도 ‘소환조사 필요’(70.2%)가 ‘소환조사 불필요’(18.4%)보다 51.8%p 높아, 소환조사를 찬성하는 의견이 압도적이었다.

 

이념 성향별에 따라서도 차이를 보였다. 진보층(92.7%)과 중도층(79.1%)에서는 ‘소환조사 필요’란 응답이 절대적으로 많았다. 반면, 보수층에서는 ‘소환조사 불필요’(57.1%)라는 응답이 ‘소환조사 필요’(37.1%)보다 20.0%p 높았으나 보수층 내에서도 ‘소환조사가 필요하다’는 의견이 적지않게 나타났다.

 

오세훈의 주장이 사실일 것 24.9% vs 명태균의 주장이 사실일 것 54.3%

응답자 54.3%로 ‘명태균 주장이 사실일 것’, 29.4%p 앞서

 

명태균 측은 오세훈 시장을 위한 여론조사를 실시해 결과를 전달했다고 주장했으나, 오세훈 시장은 이를 전면 부인했다. 명태균 씨의 주장과 오세훈 서울시장의 주장이 엇갈리는 상황에서 누구의 주장이 사실일 것이라 생각하는지 묻는 질문에 응답자의 54.3%가 ‘명태균의 주장이 사실일 것’이라고 답변했다. 반면, ‘오세훈의 주장이 사실일 것’이라는 응답은 24.9%에 그쳐, 국민 10명 중 5명 이상이 명태균의 주장을 신뢰하는 것으로 나타났다. 두 주장 간 격차는 29.4%p였다.

 

권역별로 살펴보면, TK를 제외한 모든지역에서 ‘명태균의 주장이 사실일 것’이라는 응답이 앞서거나 우세했다. 특히 호남권(79.2%)에서 ‘명태균의 주장이 사실일 것’이라는 응답이 압도적으로 높았다. 60대 이하 모든 연령대에서 ‘명태균의 주장이 사실일 것’이라는 응답이 우세했다. 다만, 18~29세 남성층에서는 두 의견이 팽팽하게 맞서는 경향을 보였다.

 

이념 성향별로도 명확한 차이가 나타났다. 진보층(77.1%)과 중도층(65.1%)에서는 ‘명태균의 주장이 사실’이라는 응답이 압도적으로 많았다. 보수층의 49.0%는 ‘오세훈의 주장이 사실일 것’이라는 응답이 우세했지만, ‘명태균의 주장이 사실’(27.9%)는 이라는 응답도 적지 않아 보수층 내에서도 의견이 갈리는 양상을 보였다.

 

윤석열 군 통수권자 복귀 반대’ 65.5%, 국민 3명 중 2명이 복귀 반대

 

윤석열의 군 통수권자로 복귀에 대한 질문에 응답자의 65.5%가 ‘반대한다’고 답했다. 반면, ‘찬성’ 의견은 32.2%에 그쳐, 응답자 3명 중 2명은 윤석열이 군 통수권자로 복귀를 부정적으로 평가하는 것으로 나타났다.

 

권역별로 살펴보면 대구·경북을 제외한 모든 지역에서 윤석열이 군 통수권자로 복귀하는 것에 ‘반대’의견이 우세했다. 특히 호남권(92.4%)은 10명 중 9명이 강력하게 반대했으며, 수도권에서도 서울(67.8%), 경인권(67.6%)에서 반대 의견이 3명 중 2명에 달했다. 한편, 지난 조사에서 ‘찬성’이 앞섰던 대구·경북에서는 이번 조사에서 ‘찬성’(46.5%)과 ‘반대’(49.6%)가 팽팽하게 맞서며 ‘반대’의견으로 살짝 기울었다. 

 

연령대별로 보면, 60대 이하 모든 연령대에서 ‘반대’ 응답이 앞서거나 우세했는데 특히 40대의 80.9%, 50대의 77.5%가 강한 반대 입장을 보였다. 연령대별 성별로 살펴보면 40대 남성(82.8%), 18~29세 여성(82.1%), 50대 남성(81.7%)의 반대가 모두 80%대를 넘어 가장 높은 반대율을 기록했다. 반면 70세 이상에서는 찬성(59.7%)이 반대(40.3%)보다 우세해 타 연령층과 대조적인 결과를 보였다.

 

정당 지지층에 따라 의견 차이가 극명하게 나타났다. 더불어민주당 지지층의 98.3%가 윤석열의 군 통수권자 복귀에 ‘반대’한 반면, 국민의힘 지지층의 87.4%가 복귀에 ‘찬성’하며 강한 대립 구도를 보였다. 무당층에서도 반대(75.3%)가 찬성(15.3%)을 60.0%p 격차로 압도했다.

 

이념성향별로도 뚜렷한 차이가 나타났다. 진보층의 93.2%가 복귀에 ‘반대’했고, 중도층 역시 ‘반대’(76.3%)가 ‘찬성’(21.9%)보다 54.4%p 높아 부정적인 평가가 압도적이었다. 반면, 보수층에서는 ‘찬성’(68.7%)이 ‘반대’(29.1%)를 39.6%p 차이로 크게 앞섰다.

 

이번 여론조사는 전화면접조사결과 인터뷰 방식으로 진행됐다. 통신3사(전체 29,999개 / SKT: 15,000, KT: 9,000, LGU+: 5,999)가 제공해 조사기간은 2025년 2월 28일~ 3월 1일 진행 (2일간), 95％ 신뢰수준에 표본오차는 ±3.1％포인트다. 응답률은 12.4% [총 통화시도 8,039명]다. 자세한 내용은 중앙선거여론조사심의위원회 홈페이지를 참조하면 된다. hpf21@naver.com

 

* 아래는 위 기사를 '구글 번역'으로 번역한 영문 기사의 [전문]입니다. '구글번역'은 이해도 높이기를 위해 노력하고 있습니다. 영문 번역에 오류가 있을 수 있음을 전제로 합니다.

*The following is [the full text] of the English article translated by 'Google Translate'. 'Google Translate' is working hard to improve understanding. It is assumed that there may be errors in the English translation.

 

Poll Flower “Democratic Party” Support Rating 46.5% vs People Power Party 34.3%... 65.5% Oppose Yoon Seok-yeol’s Return to Military Command”

Suitability of Next Presidential Candidate - Lee Jae-myung 43.6% vs 11.8%, 31.8%p Gap with Kim Moon-soo

 

In a telephone interview survey conducted by ‘Poll Flower’ for two days from February 28 to March 1, 2025, the approval rating of the ‘Democratic Party of Korea’ was 46.5%, down 3.0%p from the previous survey. On the other hand, the ‘People Power Party’ rose 3.9%p to 34.3%.

 

In addition, 65.5% of respondents answered ‘oppose’ to the question about Yoon Seok-yeol’s return to military command. On the other hand, the ‘in favor’ opinion was only 32.2%, showing that two out of three respondents had a negative view of Yoon Seok-yeol’s return to the military as commander-in-chief.

 

Regarding the most suitable presidential candidate for the next presidential election, ‘Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the Democratic Party of Korea’ came in second with 43.6%, followed by ‘Minister of Employment and Labor Kim Moon-soo’ with 11.8%, with a gap of 31.8% between the two candidates. ‘Han Dong-hoon, former leader of the People Power Party’ came in third with 6.4%, ‘Hong Joon-pyo, Mayor of Daegu’ in fourth with 5.3%, and ‘Oh Se-hoon, Mayor of Seoul’ in fifth with 5.1%. This was followed by ‘National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-sik’ (2.3%), ‘Gyeonggi Province Governor Kim Dong-yeon’ (1.5%), ‘Ahn Cheol-soo, People Power Party member’ (1.3%), and ‘Lee Jun-seok, member of the New Reform Party’ (1.2%).

 

Looking at the approval ratings by region, the Democratic Party of Korea rose 15.6%p in the Honam region, recording a 79.6% approval rating, but declined in Daegu and Gyeongbuk (10.7%p↓), Bu·Ulsan·Gyeong (7.4%p↓), and Seoul (5.3%p↓). On the other hand, the People Power Party rose in Bu·Ulsan·Gyeong (10.4%p↑), Seoul (5.5%p↑), and the Gyeongin region (5.1%p↑), showing strength in Daegu·Gyeongbuk and Bu·Ulsan·Gyeong. The Democratic Party of Korea was dominant in the metropolitan area and Honam region.

 

Looking at the age groups, the Democratic Party of Korea fell in the 50s (6.3%p↓) and 60s (6.2%p↓), and the approval rating in the 60s was reversed to the People Power Party. The People Power Party showed an upward trend in most age groups, and the increase was particularly large in the 50s (↑7.7%p) and 60s (↑5.9%p). By gender, the People Power Party’s approval rating increased for both men and women, narrowing the gap with the Democratic Party of Korea. In particular, the People Power Party’s approval rating among men aged 18–29 soared by 12.8%p, while the People Power Party’s approval rating among women of the same age group fell by 7.1%p, tightening the approval rating structure among the 18–29 age group, where the Democratic Party of Korea was ahead in the previous survey.

 

In terms of ideological tendencies, the Democratic Party of Korea was ahead among the progressive and moderate groups, while the People Power Party was ahead among the conservative groups. In the middle class, the Democratic Party of Korea fell 2.8%p to 52.8%, and the gap with the People Power Party (22.6%, ↑1.3%p) was 30.2%p.

 

Lee Jae-myung 43.6% vs. Kim Moon-soo 11.8% vs. Han Dong-hoon 6.4% vs. Hong Joon-pyo 5.3% vs. Oh Se-hoon 5.1%

 

vs. Woo Won-sik 2.3% vs. Kim Dong-yeon 1.5% vs. Ahn Cheol-soo 1.3% vs. Lee Jun-seok 1.2%

 

When asked about the most suitable presidential candidate for the next presidential election, Lee Jae-myung ranked first in all regions. In particular, he was far ahead of Kim Moon-soo in the metropolitan area, Chungcheong region, Honam region, Busan, Ulsan, Gyeongsang, and Gangwon and Jeju, and also showed an advantage within the margin of error in Daegu and Gyeongbuk.

 

By age group, ‘No suitable person’ (45.4%) was the highest among those aged 18-29, followed by ‘Lee Jae-myung’ (18.3%) and ‘Hong Jun-pyo’ (8.8%). Among those aged 30 or older and under 60, ‘Lee Jae-myung’ received overwhelming support, and among those aged 70 or older, ‘Lee Jae-myung’ (27.8%) was slightly ahead of ‘Kim Moon-soo’ (24.8%).

 

By party supporters, 81.9% of Democratic Party supporters overwhelmingly chose ‘Lee Jae-myung’. On the other hand, among the People Power Party supporters, ‘Kim Moon-soo’ (32.5%) was the most supported, followed by Han Dong-hoon (14.7%), Hong Joon-pyo (12.4%), and Oh Se-hoon (11.8%).

 

By ideological tendency, while 72.2% of the progressives overwhelmingly supported ‘Lee Jae-myung’, ‘Kim Moon-soo’ ranked first among the conservatives (28.3%). Among the moderates, ‘Lee Jae-myung’ (50.2%) was ahead of ‘Kim Moon-soo’ (6.9%) and ‘Han Dong-hoon’ (5.4%) by a wide margin.

 

Meanwhile, the combined approval rating of Democratic Party presidential candidates Lee Jae-myung, Kim Dong-yeon, and Woo Won-sik was 47.4%, 16.3%p higher than the combined approval rating of People Power Party presidential candidates Kim Moon-soo, Oh Se-hoon, Hong Joon-pyo, Han Dong-hoon, Ahn Cheol-soo, and Lee Jun-seok (31.1%).

 

68.1% say Kim Gun-hee needs to be summoned for questioning regarding suspicions of intervention in nominations vs. 27.7% say it is not necessary

 

As a recorded phone call suggesting Yoon Seok-yeol and Kim Gun-hee’s intervention in nominations was made public, 68.1% of respondents answered that “Kim Gun-hee needs to be summoned for questioning regarding suspicions of intervention in nominations.” On the other hand, the response of ‘not necessary’ was only 27.7%, showing that about 7 out of 10 citizens are demanding a summons investigation of Kim Gun-hee in relation to the suspicion of intervention in the nomination process.

 

In all regions of the country, the response of ‘Kim Gun-hee should be summoned for investigation’ was ahead or dominant. In particular, the Honam region showed the highest support rate with 90.0% responding that ‘a summons investigation is necessary.’ In Seoul (72.0%) and Gyeong-In region (71.6%), the call for a summons investigation was also strongly raised.

 

Among those under 60, the response of ‘a summons investigation is necessary’ was dominant, while among those over 70, the response of ‘a summons investigation is not necessary’ (52.6%) was higher than the response of ‘a summons investigation is necessary’ (41.3%).

 

Opinions were greatly divided depending on the party support tendency. 97.3% of the Democratic Party supporters overwhelmingly responded that ‘a summons investigation is necessary.’ On the other hand, the People Power Party supporters overwhelmingly responded that ‘a summons investigation is unnecessary’ (71.1%). Even among the non-partisan group, ‘a summons investigation is necessary’ (70.2%) was 51.8%p higher than ‘a summons investigation is unnecessary’ (18.4%), showing an overwhelming support for a summons investigation.

 

There were also differences by ideological tendency. The progressive group (92.7%) and the moderate group (79.1%) overwhelmingly responded that ‘a summons investigation is necessary’. On the other hand, among the conservative group, the response that ‘a summons investigation is unnecessary’ (57.1%) was 20.0%p higher than ‘a summons investigation is necessary’ (37.1%), but even within the conservative group, there were quite a few opinions that ‘a summons investigation is necessary’.

 

Oh Se-hoon's claim is likely to be true 24.9% vs. Myeong Tae-gyun's claim is likely to be true 54.3%

 

54.3% of respondents said 'Myeong Tae-gyun's claim is likely to be true', 29.4%p ahead

 

Myeong Tae-gyun's side claimed that they conducted a public opinion poll for Mayor Oh Se-hoon and delivered the results, but Mayor Oh Se-hoon completely denied this. When asked whose claim was likely to be true in a situation where Myeong Tae-gyun's claim and Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon's claim were at odds, 54.3% of respondents answered 'Myeong Tae-gyun's claim is likely to be true.' On the other hand, only 24.9% responded that 'Oh Se-hoon's claim is likely to be true,' showing that more than 5 out of 10 citizens trust Myeong Tae-gyun's claim. The gap between the two claims was 29.4%p.

 

When looking at it by region, in all regions except TK, the response that 'Myeong Tae-gyun's claim is likely to be true' was ahead or dominant. In particular, the Honam region (79.2%) overwhelmingly responded that “Myeong Tae-gyun’s claims are likely true.” In all age groups under 60, the response that “Myeong Tae-gyun’s claims are likely true” was dominant. However, among men aged 18 to 29, the two opinions tended to be evenly matched.

 

There was also a clear difference in ideological tendencies. The progressive class (77.1%) and the moderate class (65.1%) overwhelmingly responded that “Myeong Tae-gyun’s claims are likely true.” Among the conservative class, 49.0% responded that “Oh Se-hoon’s claims are likely true,” but there were also quite a few responses that “Myeong Tae-gyun’s claims are likely true” (27.9%), showing that opinions were divided even within the conservative class.

 

65.5% Oppose Yoon Seok-yeol's Return to Military Command, 2 out of 3 Citizens Oppose His Return

 

When asked about Yoon Seok-yeol's return to military command, 65.5% of respondents answered 'opposed'. On the other hand, only 32.2% 'in favor', showing that 2 out of 3 respondents have a negative view of Yoon Seok-yeol's return to military command.

 

When looking at it by region, 'opposed' Yoon Seok-yeol's return to military command was dominant in all regions except Daegu and Gyeongbuk. In particular, 9 out of 10 people in the Honam region (92.4%) strongly opposed it, and in the metropolitan area, 2 out of 3 people in Seoul (67.8%) and Gyeongin (67.6%) opposed it. Meanwhile, in Daegu and Gyeongbuk, where ‘agree’ was ahead in the previous survey, ‘agree’ (46.5%) and ‘disagree’ (49.6%) were evenly matched in this survey, slightly leaning toward ‘disagree’.

 

Looking at it by age group, ‘disagree’ responses were ahead or dominant in all age groups under 60, especially 80.9% of those in their 40s and 77.5% of those in their 50s showed strong opposition. Looking at it by age group and gender, the opposition rate among men in their 40s (82.8%), women aged 18-29 (82.1%), and men in their 50s (81.7%) all exceeded 80%, recording the highest opposition rate. On the other hand, among those aged 70 and older, approval (59.7%) was ahead of opposition (40.3%), showing a contrasting result with other age groups.

 

Opinions differed sharply depending on the party support base. While 98.3% of the Democratic Party of Korea supporters were ‘opposed’ to Yoon Seok-yeol’s return to the military, 87.4% of the People Power Party supporters were ‘in favor’ of his return, showing a strong confrontational structure. Even among the non-partisan group, those who opposed (75.3%) were overwhelmingly in favor (15.3%) by 60.0%p.

 

There was also a clear difference by ideological tendency. 93.2% of the progressive group were ‘opposed’ to the return, and among the moderate group, ‘opposition’ (76.3%) was 54.4%p higher than ‘agreement’ (21.9%), showing an overwhelmingly negative evaluation. On the other hand, among the conservative group, ‘agreement’ (68.7%) was far ahead of ‘agreement’ (29.1%) by 39.6%p.

 

This opinion poll was conducted in the form of a telephone interview. The survey was conducted from February 28 to March 1, 2025 (2 days), provided by the three telecommunication companies (total 29,999 / SKT: 15,000, KT: 9,000, LGU+: 5,999). The survey was conducted at a confidence level of 95% and the sampling error is ±3.1%. The response rate was 12.4% [total call attempts 8